New Analysis of Global Jihad from Scheuer

I keep waiting to find somebody that can show me where Mike Scheuer is way out in left or right field with his analysis of "The GWOT" (a term I don't believe I've ever seen him use), but I've yet to find anybody who can refute it other than saying "He's wrong!" without backing it up with something cogent.

His latest piece will run in Jamestown Foundation's upcoming issue of Terrorism Focus (#18), and he makes a good case for this becoming a more difficult fight, not less. He concluded that the next generation of al Qaeda will be more numerous, more fervent in their religious belief, more professional and less cowboy, and even more adept at utilizing modern technology and media to their advantage. Scheuer says,

"Despite satellites, electronic intercept equipment, and expanding human intelligence, the West does not understand al-Qaeda the way it knew the Soviet Union. Transnational targets are substantially more difficult collection targets than nation-states. We are, for example, unlikely to build an accurate al-Qaeda order-of-battle or recruit assets to penetrate the al-Qaeda equivalent of Moscow's politburo. As a result, Western analysts must closely track broad trends within al-Qaeda and its allies, and the trends toward greater piety, professionalism, numbers and modernity merit particular attention."

In sum, we have no idea who we're fighting or even where we're supposed to be fighting them. Infiltrate this! Please.


Scheuer gives them great credit for quickly responding with their own analysis, countersurveillance techniques, and countermeasures to US technology to foil IEDs in Iraq.

Anyone suggesting that the leadership or populous in The West has a handle on this thing has no idea what time it is.

I welcome corrections and refutions. I really don't want to be right about this.